Four win total predictions to make following 2023

The NFL released its full schedule on Thursday night for the 2023 season, so we now know which week each team will play, giving us some more insight to predict win totals.

The BetSided team each picked one win total that they love already in May, so you may want to jump on them while the odds are where they are.

Best NFL win total bets to make following schedule release

New York Jets OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

Regular Season Wins – New York Jets

Odds updated May 11th, 2023, at 7:41 pm

Since he became a starting quarterback in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has led his team to 10 or more wins in his starts in 10 of 15 seasons. As long as he’s healthy, he’s almost a lock for his team winning 10 games.

The Jets picked up seven wins with arguably the worst quarterback play in the NFL last season from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White.

The upgrade to Rodgers is astronomical, and the fact that New York is seventh in the odds to win the Super Bowl signals to me that it should be expected to win double-digit games this season.

The last key in this equation is the Jets’ defense.

New York was tied for first in opponent yards per play with the Philadelphia Eagles last season, and the team allowed the fourth fewest points per game in the NFL.

Now that the Jets won’t have to worry about their defense single-handedly carrying them to wins, they should be one of the better teams in the NFL in the 2023 season. — Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Rams UNDER 7.5 Wins (-140) – Reed Wallach

Regular Season Wins – Los Angeles Rams

Odds updated May 11th, 2023, at 7:41 pm

It’s pricey, but I think the beginning of a rebuild is imminent in Los Angeles. The team is two years removed from a Super Bowl in which they cashed in on tons of draft capital and loaded its roster with stars in order to win.

Now, the stars are aging and potential on their way out, if they haven’t left already like Jalen Ramsey.

Matthew Stafford has battled concussions and elbow injuries over the last year and Cooper Kupp was in and out of the lineup as well. Meanwhile, the defense is Aaron Donald and not much else by way of high level talent, does he still have the ability to lift a defense above mediocrity?

The team will have two likely wins against the Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals, but the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers figure to be postseason contenders once again and the team has the ninth hardest opponent strength of schedule based on last year’s record (a somewhat flukey indicator of how hard this year’s schedule will be to be fair).

Further, what happens if the season goes off the rails like last year? Will the Rams pull Stafford, who at age 35 has already been rumored to be contemplating retirement?

There’s too much downside to the current state of the Rams not to suck down some juice and play the under. — Reed Wallach

Kansas City Chiefs OVER 11.5 Wins (-125)

Regular Season Wins – Kansas City Chiefs

Odds updated May 11th, 2023, at 7:41 pm

If Patrick Mahomes is healthy, there is virtually no chance the Kansas City Chiefs fall short of 11.5 wins this upcoming season.

Kansas City just rolled through what was considered one of the most difficult schedules in history to finish with 14 regular season wins and a Super Bowl, and now the roster appears demonstrably better.

Since Mahomes became the starting quarterback five seasons ago, the Chiefs have won at least 12 games every single year. Keep in mind that those first three seasons had one fewer game, so it’s even easier now for Kansas City to hit the over.

With an improved offensive line and defense alongside a solidified skill position group, this may be the best roster Mahomes has ever played with. When you consider Kansas City’s schedule next year as well, the value of this bet becomes even more obvious.

Mahomes is 27-3 against the AFC West in his career, so we can expect another strong showing against the division this year. Otherwise, there are difficult games against the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles, but all are at home. The toughest road games appear to be against the Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars and Jets.

Even if you think the Chiefs take a step back, they can lose five games and still hit their over!

Do you really think Mahomes is losing six times next year? I wouldn’t bank on it. — Joe Summers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 6.5 Wins (-120)

Regular Season Wins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Odds updated May 11th, 2023, at 7:41 pm

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Super Bowl window closed the second that Tom Brady announced he was retiring from the NFL (for real this time).

Brady had a drastic decline for the first time in his career last year, but even a diminished GOAT is still better than any combination of Baker Mayfield (played for THREE teams last year alone) and Kyle Trask.

But enough about Brady. Let’s dig into the rest of the roster, too.

The defense should still be respectable, at the least, with playmakers at every level, including Vita Vea on the defensive line, a borderline-elite linebacking corps with Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David and Devin White (requested a trade) and a secondary that returns Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis III and Antoine Whitfield Jr.

HOWEVER, the offense leaves too much to be desired.

Consider that the Bucs were DEAD LAST in yards per rush last season and have since swapped Leonard Fournette for Chase Edmonds. The team was also 25th in the league in yards per play. Do you think that’s going to improve with Brady gone and the receivers all a year older?

That’s not even to mention that a formerly pathetic NFC South has beefed up, with the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers each making significant offseason additions through the draft and free agency.

Back the Bucs to fall off in the first year post-Brady, losing at least two more games than last year’s 8-9 campaign. — Vinnie Portell

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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